footymodel

Live predictions for Premier League goals O/U 2.5 and player shots / shots-on-target, both backtested. Paper-trade only, nothing here is a real bet.

Track record

Goals predictions only (v1): graded against real results once a match finishes. "Bet" means the model showed positive EV on a side at the time it was logged; still paper-trade, no real money moved.

Model accuracy

66.7%

6 graded

Bets placed

positive EV at the time

Bet win rate

50.0%

Cumulative return

-14.0%

in stake units

Aston Villa 0-1 ArsenalTue 01 Sept, 00:30 IST

model ✓bet under @ 2.25 (+1.25)

Manchester United 5-2 IpswichSun 30 Aug, 21:00 IST

model ✓bet under @ 2.65 (-1.00)

Chelsea 4-3 BrightonSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

model ✗bet under @ 2.35 (-1.00)

Leeds 1-1 BrentfordSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

model ✗bet over @ 2.25 (-1.00)

Sunderland 1-0 FulhamSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

model ✓bet under @ 1.84 (+0.84)

Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester CitySat 29 Aug, 00:30 IST

model ✓bet over @ 1.77 (+0.77)

Goals: Over/Under 2.5

Fixtures move Preview → Today → Past by kickoff time. Confirmed-lineup model fills in once XIs are announced (~20–40 min pre-kickoff).

Today

Match day

Matches kicking off today (UTC), including live games until full-time. Goals O/U analysis when lineups are confirmed.

No Premier League matches scheduled for today.

Preview

Next 5 scheduled fixtures on future matchdays.

No further fixtures in the preview window.

Everton v Man UnitedPreviewSun 06 Sept, 18:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

55.7%

xG total

2.91

Odds O / U

1.55 / 2.40

EV Over / Under

-13.6%+6.3%

starters matched 11/11·RapidAPI·Tap for full model breakdown

Model breakdown

Team model

2.95 xG · 56.6%

Lineup model

2.90 xG · 55.4%

Blended

2.91 xG · 55.7%

Team and lineup models agree closely.

Fair P(O2.5)

60.8%

Market O2.5

1.55

Market U2.5

2.40

Logged

Sun 06 Sept, 18:15 IST

Confirmed lineups

Everton

Jordan Pickford
Merlin Röhl
James Tarkowski
Jarrad Branthwaite
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Harrison Armstrong
James Garner
Brennan Johnson
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Tyrique George
Thierno Barry

Man United

Senne Lammens
Diogo Dalot
Harry Maguire
Lisandro Martínez
Luke Shaw
Youri Tielemans
Kobbie Mainoo
Bryan Mbeumo
Bruno Fernandes
Marcus Rashford
Matheus Cunha

Aston Villa v ArsenalPreviewTue 01 Sept, 00:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

44.2%

xG total

2.45

Odds O / U

1.75 / 2.25

EV Over / Under

-22.6%+25.5%

starters matched 9/11·API-Football

Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal1 goals · Under 2.5

Model correctBet under @ 2.25 won(+1.25 units)

Model breakdown

Team model

2.92 xG · 55.9%

Lineup model

2.29 xG · 40.1%

Blended

2.45 xG · 44.2%

Team and lineup models diverge.

Fair P(O2.5)

56.2%

Market O2.5

1.75

Market U2.5

2.25

Logged

Tue 01 Sept, 18:25 IST

Confirmed lineups

Aston Villa

Z. Suzuki
M. Cash
V. Lindelof
P. Torres
I. Maatsen
B. Kamara
R. Barkley
J. McGinn
E. Buendia
G. Hemmings
N. Jackson

Arsenal

D. Raya
B. White
C. Mosquera
Gabriel
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
M. Odegaard
C. Tzolis
K. Havertz

Manchester United v IpswichPreviewSun 30 Aug, 21:00 IST

Model P(O2.5)

59.1%

xG total

3.07

Odds O / U

1.60 / 2.65

EV Over / Under

-5.4%+8.3%

starters matched 11/9·API-Football

Manchester United 5-2 Ipswich7 goals · Over 2.5

Model correctBet under @ 2.65 lost(-1.00 units)

Model breakdown

Team model

3.66 xG · 70.7%

Lineup model

2.87 xG · 54.7%

Blended

3.07 xG · 59.1%

Team and lineup models diverge.

Fair P(O2.5)

62.4%

Market O2.5

1.60

Market U2.5

2.65

Logged

Tue 01 Sept, 18:41 IST

Confirmed lineups

Manchester United

S. Lammens
D. Dalot
H. Maguire
L. Martinez
L. Shaw
Y. Tielemans
K. Mainoo
B. Mbeumo
B. Fernandes
M. Rashford
M. Cunha

Ipswich

K. Scherpen
D. O'Shea
I. Diop
J. Greaves
L. Davis
S. Lukic
M. Nunez
I. Fatawu
J. Enciso
D. Maeda
Emersonn

Chelsea v BrightonPreviewSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

43.9%

xG total

2.43

Odds O / U

1.70 / 2.35

EV Over / Under

-25.4%+31.8%

starters matched 8/8·API-Football

Chelsea 4-3 Brighton7 goals · Over 2.5

Model wrongBet under @ 2.35 lost(-1.00 units)

Model breakdown

Team model

3.12 xG · 60.3%

Lineup model

2.21 xG · 37.9%

Blended

2.43 xG · 43.9%

Team and lineup models diverge.

Fair P(O2.5)

58.0%

Market O2.5

1.70

Market U2.5

2.35

Logged

Tue 01 Sept, 18:40 IST

Confirmed lineups

Chelsea

E. Martinez
W. Fofana
M. Lacroix
L. Colwill
P. Neto
M. Gusto
R. Lavia
J. Hato
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
Joao Pedro

Brighton

B. Verbruggen
M. Wieffer
L. Vuskovic
L. Dunk
F. Kadioglu
P. Gross
O. Boscagli
D. Gomez
M. Yalcouye
M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas

Leeds v BrentfordPreviewSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

55.2%

xG total

2.89

Odds O / U

2.25 / 2.00

EV Over / Under

+24.2%-10.4%

starters matched 11/8·API-Football

Leeds 1-1 Brentford2 goals · Under 2.5

Model wrongBet over @ 2.25 lost(-1.00 units)

Model breakdown

Team model

3.28 xG · 63.7%

Lineup model

2.76 xG · 52.1%

Blended

2.89 xG · 55.2%

Team and lineup models diverge.

Fair P(O2.5)

47.1%

Market O2.5

2.25

Market U2.5

2.00

Logged

Tue 01 Sept, 18:40 IST

Confirmed lineups

Leeds

J. Trafford
J. Rodon
J. Bijol
T. Muharemovic
J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
A. Stach
J. Justin
B. Aaronson
N. Okafor
D. Calvert-Lewin

Brentford

C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
K. Ajer
N. Collins
K. Lewis-Potter
M. Sangare
V. Janelt
J. Anthony
M. Damsgaard
K. Schade
I. Thiago

Sunderland v FulhamPreviewSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

36.0%

xG total

2.14

Odds O / U

2.11 / 1.84

EV Over / Under

-24.1%+17.8%

starters matched 10/9·API-Football

Sunderland 1-0 Fulham1 goals · Under 2.5

Model correctBet under @ 1.84 won(+0.84 units)

Model breakdown

Team model

2.63 xG · 48.9%

Lineup model

1.97 xG · 31.5%

Blended

2.14 xG · 36.0%

Team and lineup models diverge.

Fair P(O2.5)

46.6%

Market O2.5

2.11

Market U2.5

1.84

Logged

Tue 01 Sept, 18:40 IST

Confirmed lineups

Sunderland

R. Roefs
T. Meunier
N. Mukiele
D. Ballard
R. Mandava
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
T. Hume
E. Le Fee
N. Angulo
B. Brobbey

Fulham

B. Leno
T. Castagne
J. Andersen
C. Bassey
A. Robinson
S. Berge
A. Iwobi
O. Bobb
J. King
C. Palacios
G. Garcia

Crystal Palace v Manchester CityPreviewSat 29 Aug, 00:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

60.6%

xG total

3.14

Odds O / U

1.77 / 2.26

EV Over / Under

+7.3%-11.1%

starters matched 11/10·API-Football

Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City5 goals · Over 2.5

Model correctBet over @ 1.77 won(+0.77 units)

Detailed breakdown not available for this prediction.

Brighton v Aston VillaPreviewSun 23 Aug, 18:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

44.2%

xG total

2.44

Odds O / U

- / -

EV Over / Under

starters matched 10/10·API-Football

Detailed breakdown not available for this prediction.

Manchester City v BournemouthPreviewSun 23 Aug, 18:30 IST

Model P(O2.5)

60.5%

xG total

3.13

Odds O / U

- / -

EV Over / Under

starters matched 10/10·API-Football

Detailed breakdown not available for this prediction.

Player shots & shots-on-target

Fixtures move Preview → Today → Past as kickoff approaches. Player lines fill in once lineups are confirmed (~20–40 min pre-kickoff). SOT 3+ has no underlying data yet, shown as -.

Today

Match day

Matches kicking off today (UTC), including live games until full-time. Full XI and shots/SOT analysis once lineups are confirmed.

No Premier League matches scheduled for today.

Preview

Next 5 scheduled fixtures on future matchdays.

No further fixtures in the preview window.

Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal1 goals · Under 2.5

Model correctBet under @ 2.25 won(+1.25 units)

Arsenal v Aston VillaPreviewTue 01 Sept, 00:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
K. Havertz	39%	81%
C. Tzolis	-	80%
M. Odegaard	32%	72%
B. Saka	55%	85%
M. Lewis-Skelly	-	28%
D. Rice	30%	62%
R. Calafiori	-	60%
Gabriel	55%	48%
C. Mosquera	-	22%
B. White	20%	35%
D. Raya	0%	0%

Manchester United 5-2 Ipswich7 goals · Over 2.5

Model correctBet under @ 2.65 lost(-1.00 units)

Ipswich v Manchester UnitedPreviewSun 30 Aug, 21:00 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
Emersonn	-	82%
D. Maeda	-	73%
J. Enciso	-	86%
I. Fatawu	-	72%
M. Nunez	-	-
S. Lukic	-	48%
L. Davis	-	33%
J. Greaves	-	29%
I. Diop	-	23%
D. O'Shea	-	-
K. Scherpen	-	0%

Chelsea 4-3 Brighton7 goals · Over 2.5

Model wrongBet under @ 2.35 lost(-1.00 units)

Brighton v ChelseaPreviewSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
C. Kostoulas	-	84%
M. De Cuyper	-	38%
M. Yalcouye	-	-
D. Gomez	-	61%
O. Boscagli	-	20%
P. Gross	-	-
F. Kadioglu	-	40%
L. Dunk	-	37%
L. Vuskovic	-	-
M. Wieffer	-	40%
B. Verbruggen	-	0%

Leeds 1-1 Brentford2 goals · Under 2.5

Model wrongBet over @ 2.25 lost(-1.00 units)

Brentford v LeedsPreviewSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
I. Thiago	-	81%
K. Schade	53%	77%
M. Damsgaard	22%	66%
J. Anthony	55%	-
V. Janelt	18%	47%
M. Sangare	-	-
K. Lewis-Potter	55%	62%
N. Collins	14%	37%
K. Ajer	-	-
M. Kayode	-	25%
C. Kelleher	-	0%

Sunderland 1-0 Fulham1 goals · Under 2.5

Model correctBet under @ 1.84 won(+0.84 units)

Fulham v SunderlandPreviewSun 30 Aug, 18:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
G. Garcia	-	-
C. Palacios	-	-
J. King	-	77%
O. Bobb	-	69%
A. Iwobi	-	73%
S. Berge	-	38%
A. Robinson	-	31%
C. Bassey	-	30%
J. Andersen	-	39%
T. Castagne	-	39%
B. Leno	-	0%

Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City5 goals · Over 2.5

Model correctBet over @ 1.77 won(+0.77 units)

Manchester City v Crystal PalacePreviewSat 29 Aug, 00:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
Erling Haaland	59%	88%
Antoine Semenyo	-	81%
Rayan Cherki	-	81%
Phil Foden	43%	81%
Marc Guéhi	-	41%
Elliot Anderson	-	-
Nico O'Reilly	-	60%
Joško Gvardiol	24%	53%
Rúben Dias	18%	37%
Abdukodir Khusanov	-	32%
Gianluigi Donnarumma	-	0%

Aston Villa v BrightonPreviewSun 23 Aug, 18:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
Emiliano Buendía	-	76%
George Hemmings	-	58%
João Gomes	-	-
John McGinn	-	56%
Boubacar Kamara	-	33%
Ross Barkley	-	70%
Ian Maatsen	-	52%
Victor Lindelöf	-	21%
Pau Torres	-	29%
Matty Cash	-	43%
Marco Bizot	-	0%

Bournemouth v Manchester CityPreviewSun 23 Aug, 18:30 IST

Player	Shots on Target	Total Shots
Evanilson	-	66%
Marcus Tavernier	19%	64%
Justin Kluivert	22%	62%
Rayan	-	63%
Alex Scott	14%	47%
Lewis Cook	10%	22%
Adrien Truffert	-	21%
James Hill	14%	26%
António Silva	-	-
Adam Smith	8%	10%
Đorđe Petrović	-	0%

Glossary

What the numbers on the other tabs actually mean.

General concepts

Expected Value (EV): For a bet with model probability p and decimal odds o: EV = p x o - 1. Positive EV means the price pays out more than it should on average, given how often the model thinks the outcome actually happens; negative EV means the price is worse than fair value even if the outcome is likely. Shown as a percentage (+7.3% means staking 1 unit is expected to return 1.073 units on average, across many repeats).
Decimal odds: "@ 1.77" means: stake 1 unit, get back 1.77 total if it wins (0.77 profit). Implied probability = 1 / odds (1.77 -> 56.5%). Fair (breakeven) odds for a given probability p = 1 / p. A market price above that is positive EV, below it is negative.

Track Record terms

Model accuracy: Fraction of graded goals predictions where the model's Over/Under 2.5 pick matched the real result, whether or not there was a bet on it.
Bets placed: Count of graded predictions where the model showed positive EV on a side at the time it was logged (paper-trade only, no real stakes).
Bet win rate: Of those bets, the fraction that actually won.
Cumulative return: Total realized profit/loss across all bets, in stake units (each bet assumed 1 unit).
model ✓ / ✗: Whether the model's Over/Under pick matched the real final score.

Goals O/U terms

Model P(O2.5): The model's probability that the match finishes with over 2.5 total goals.
xG total: The model's expected combined goals for both teams (Dixon-Coles model blended with the confirmed starting lineups).
Odds O / U: The best available market price for Over 2.5 / Under 2.5, fetched live.
EV Over / Under: See Expected Value above, computed separately for each side.
starters matched: How many of the confirmed starting XI (out of 11 per side) were successfully matched to the model's historical player database. A prediction needs at least 8 of 11 matched per side to be logged at all.

Player Props terms

Shots 1+ / 2+ / 3+: Probability a player registers at least that many total shots in the match.
SOT (Shots on Target) 1+ / 2+: Same idea, restricted to shots that were on target. SOT 3+ shows as "-" because that specific threshold has no underlying model built for it yet, not because of missing data for a particular player.
Most probable bets: The single highest-probability pick across every player, market, and threshold combination logged for today's fixtures.

Staking terms

Kelly criterion: A formula for how much of your bankroll to stake on a positive-EV bet to maximize long-run growth, based on the size of your edge and the odds. Full Kelly can be aggressive; "1/4 Kelly" means staking a quarter of what full Kelly recommends, trading some growth for much less variance.
Flat stake: A fixed 1% of starting bankroll every bet, regardless of edge size. The baseline comparison against the Kelly strategies.
median final bankroll: Across 10,000 simulated seasons, the middle outcome, shown as a multiple of the starting bankroll (e.g. "5.43x" means the bankroll grew to 5.43 times its starting value in the median simulation).
Max drawdown: The largest peak-to-trough drop in bankroll within a single simulated season, median across all simulations.
Risk of ruin: How often, across all simulations, the bankroll fell to 5% or less of its starting value.

Track record

Goals: Over/Under 2.5

Today

Preview

Player shots & shots-on-target

Today

Preview

Staking: Kelly bankroll simulation

Glossary

General concepts

Track Record terms

Goals O/U terms

Player Props terms

Staking terms